◎ Tu Xingzhe
International politics is sometimes very complicated, but if you tear off the wrapping paper, it is actually very simple: everyone talks about ideals, but all they think about is interests.
In the past Cold War era, in order to deal with the Soviet Union, the United States fought "alliance with China to contain Russia." Now with the rise of China, the United States' biggest strategic competitor has changed, and the interaction between Washington and Moscow has also undergone subtle changes. The United States, China, and Russia are three major countries. You pull me in and I guard you. They are brothers on the surface, but they are kicking each other in the legs under the table.
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Particularly worth pondering is the relationship between China and Russia. Beijing claims that Sino-Russian cooperation has "no upper limit", but how can there be truly no upper limit in international politics? Only national interests have no upper limit.
Russia is deeply involved in the Ukrainian battlefield. This war was originally thought to be a quick one. However, it has been more than four years since the war started. Russia's military power, economy and international influence have been severely depleted. It even needs to rely on North Korea's troops and military support and China's covert efforts.
Russia is deeply involved in the Ukrainian battlefield, and its military strength, economy and international influence have been severely depleted. The picture shows a Ukrainian drone attack on a Moscow refinery on June 18. (AFP file photo) For China, it may not be a good thing if Russia is too strong, nor is it a good thing if Russia is too weak; the ideal situation is "you need me, but you can't overwhelm me."
China's original plan was to support Russia in attacking Ukraine. If it won, it could be used as a template and reference for China to invade Taiwan; if it failed to conquer Ukraine, it could also weaken Russia's national power. In any case, China can obtain substantial benefits by selling weapons and purchasing low-priced gasoline and energy from Russia after it was sanctioned by the United States.
Don’t forget that the real boss of the communist world was the Soviet Union. In its early years, the CCP was deeply influenced by the Soviet Communist Party in terms of its ideology, organization and even system. But today, with a population of 1.3 billion and a huge economy, China has even become the second largest economy in the world. It is no longer willing to be an obedient little brother.
So we see a very interesting situation: On the one hand, Beijing shouts about Sino-Russian friendship, but if it can use external forces to defeat Russia and weaken it, the person who will really gain strategic benefits and benefits may be China.
With the support and encouragement of the CCP, Russia attacked Ukraine and got deeply involved in it. It was unable to win the attack for four years, and now it regrets it. The CCP may be sniggering and has become the big brother of the communist camp.
Let’s look back at Taiwan.
For decades, Beijing has continuously emphasized the "reunification of the motherland" and even described Taiwan as an indivisible part. However, the United States' "one-China policy" and Beijing's "one-China principle" have never meant the same thing.
The United States recognizes the government of the People's Republic of China as the only legitimate government of China and agrees with the one-China principle, but it has not accepted Beijing's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan and has never recognized Taiwan as part of China. It even maintains Taiwan's self-defense capabilities through the Taiwan Relations Act. Who is this to enhance self-defense and confront? Everyone knows it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping (right). However, on the one hand, Beijing shouts about Sino-Russian friendship, but if it can use external force to defeat and weaken Russia, the one who will truly gain strategic benefits and benefits may be China. (European News Agency file photo) This is where the United States is brilliant.
To a certain extent, the Taiwan issue is like a carrot that the United States dangles in front of Beijing, always allowing the Beijing authorities to keep moving forward but unable to eat it.
You want to unify? The United States said, I know; you said Taiwan is part of you? The United States said that I "understand" your position. But that doesn't mean I agree. If you run peacefully, I will let you continue to run with your dreams; if you want to use political and economic power to grab it, then the US attitude will be completely different. Just like when Biden was asked if China invaded Taiwan, he made it clear that the United States would send troops to protect Taiwan because that was our commitment to Taiwan.
As a result, the CCP has been talking about "unifying Taiwan" louder and louder for decades, and in the end it tied itself to this political promise. The more full you talk, the harder it is to retreat; the harder it is to retreat, the easier it is to be contained. In fact, the United States and other countries around the world know that what Xi Jinping of the Communist Party of China wants is not ideological unity, but Taiwan, an unsinkable aircraft carrier. The CCP will "leave the island but not the people." The purpose of invading Taiwan is to gain access to the sea to expand sea power and dominate the world. Therefore, the United States is the real enemy of the CCP.
What’s even more interesting is that in the early years, the CCP’s view of Taiwan was not the same as it is today.
When Mao Zedong was interviewed by American journalist Snow in his early years, he even talked about supporting Taiwan's struggle for independence after Taiwan broke away from Japanese colonial rule. History is so humorous: Today, the reunification of Taiwan is said to be a "natural and natural thing". When old accounts are opened, it is often not so natural.
Today’s chess game between the United States, China and Russia can be summed up in one sentence: Beijing is using Russia’s obsession with Ukraine (ambition) to weaken Russia and contain the United States, and the United States is also using Beijing’s obsession with Taiwan (reunification) to contain China. Originally, the United States hoped that China's economy would improve and that it would obediently move towards a democratic and civilized society. Unexpectedly, after the economy improved, the CCP would go further and further away, and China's human rights would become more oppressed. The CCP even wanted to use the Belt and Road Initiative to change the world and threaten the United States.
What Xi Jinping of the Communist Party of China wants is not ideological unity, but Taiwan, an unsinkable aircraft carrier. The picture shows a street scene in Taipei. (Bloomberg file photo) In international politics, there are only treacherous and ever-changing situations. There is no permanent big brother, no permanent little brother, and there is no free brotherhood. Russia fell into the quagmire of the Ukrainian war, while China was firmly bound by its own "dream of reunification."
(The author once served as national policy adviser, legislator, and mayor of Chiayi)
