According to political experts, the AfD's strong growth in the Lower Saxony local elections could permanently change the party's local roots. Numerous additional mandates will make it significantly more capable of acting in local politics. At the same time, the results showed that although the CDU and SPD were relatively firmly rooted, their traditional strongholds were continuing to erode.
In the district elections, the AfD achieved around 16 percent nationwide, increasing by around 11 percentage points. However, she missed the goal she had set for herself. The CDU and SPD remained the strongest parties, but lost 4.5 and 5.4 percentage points respectively.
More mandates enable local anchoring
The AfD's growth cannot be measured solely by the vote share, said research assistant at the Göttingen Institute for Democracy Research, Alexander Hensel. The party has tripled its number of seats at district level and even quintupled at municipal level. “It can act much more broadly and in individual places in a more concentrated manner and can thus become much more capable of acting in local politics,” said Hensel.
The AfD can now work harder to establish itself as a local force with specific people and local issues. Such normalization on site can already be observed in East Germany.
However, political scientist Philipp Köker from Leibniz University Hannover pointed out that the AfD had lagged behind its national trend. This could indicate a lower mobilization potential in Lower Saxony. What will be crucial for the state election in 2027 will be whether she can mobilize voters nationwide with a unified campaign and a suitable top candidate.
Why is the AfD particularly strong in Salzgitter?
The AfD was particularly successful in the city of Salzgitter, where it became the strongest force in the district elections with around 27 percent. Her mayoral candidate also reached the runoff election. According to the experts, economic uncertainty, a comparatively weak social structure and the SPD's loss of importance in a former social democratic stronghold come together.
The political scientist Martin Gross, who will take up a professorship at the University of Oldenburg from October, referred to concerns about the automotive industry and large suppliers. Economic crises or fear for one's own job could increase support for the AfD.
CDU and SPD strongholds are eroding
Despite their losses, the CDU and SPD still performed significantly better in Lower Saxony than in many other federal states, the scientists explained. Strong incumbents and candidates as well as a concentration on local issues helped them to partially differentiate themselves from the national political mood.
But that should not obscure the dwindling support in their core areas. “There are progressive erosion trends both in the area and in the strongholds of the two popular parties,” said Hensel. Köker saw this as a warning for the state elections: There the CDU and SPD could less easily distance themselves from federal political conflicts.
Not an easy forecast for the state elections
According to the experts, it is not possible to derive a simple forecast for the state elections next year from the results. Personalities and local issues played a greater role in local elections than at the state or federal level.
A clear influence of the recently held state elections in Saxony-Anhalt cannot be proven either, said Köker. However, the significantly increased voter turnout indicates greater politicization. Without data on voter migration, it remains unclear which parties have mobilized particularly large numbers of former non-voters.
