Datafolha points to a technical tie between Elmano and Ciro in Ceará with 50% to 47% in valid votes

Datafolha research released this Saturday (3), the day before the election, points to a scenario of a technical tie between governor Elmano de Freitas (PT) and former governor Ciro Gomes (PSDB) in the dispute for the Government of Ceará. Elmano has 50% of valid voting intentions against 47% for Ciro.

Delegate Huggo (Mission), Vera Lúcia (Novo) and Zé Batista (PSTU) each had 1%. Too many candidates did not score.

The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

To calculate valid votes, blank votes, invalid votes and voters who declare themselves undecided are excluded. The procedure is comparable to that used by the Electoral Court to count and publish the official election results.

The technical tie recorded in the Datafolha research scenario does not allow us to determine whether or not the election should be concluded in the first round — for this to happen, some candidate must have more than 50% of the valid votes.

Taking into account the total votes, Elmano appears with 46%, followed by Ciro with 44%. Vera Lúcia (Novo), Delegado Huggo (Mission) and Zé Batista (PSTU) each had 1%. The other candidates did not score.

White, null or none made up 4%, while 3% said they were undecided.

This is the fourth survey carried out after the official start of the campaign. In the previous Datafolha survey, released on September 25, Ciro had 44% of total voting intentions, compared to Elmano's 43%.

The survey, commissioned by the newspaper O Povo, was carried out on Friday (2) and Saturday (3) with 1,560 voters aged 16 or over in Ceará, in 56 municipalities. The research was registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) with numbers CE-09234/2026 and BR-06469/2026 and a confidence level of 95%.

In the second round simulation, Elmano de Freitas scored 49%, against 45% for Ciro Gomes. Whites and nulls totaled 3%, and 3% said they didn't know who to vote for.

The electoral campaign in Ceará reaches the final stretch with pulverized platforms, legal disputes and an "occupied land" strategy by the candidates. Allies until 2022, Ciro and Elmano exchanged accusations throughout the campaign and even argued with their fingers raised in a TV debate.

After contesting four presidential elections, Ciro seeks to rise from his political cradle. He returned to the PSDB after three decades and is contesting the election in alliance with right-wing parties such as União Brasil, PP and PL, maintaining neutrality in the presidential dispute.

The alliance between the PL and Ciro made the state the epicenter of a dispute that divided the conservative camp and exposed fissures between PL leaders and the Bolsonaro family, with public clashes between former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

The ticket has the former mayor of Fortaleza Roberto Cláudio (União Brasil) as vice-president, in addition to state deputy Alcides Fernandes (PL) and former federal deputy Captain Wagner for the Senate.

In the government camp, Elmano de Freitas is running for re-election with Gabriella Aguiar (PSD) as vice candidate. Senator Cid Gomes, Ciro's brother, forms the ticket for the Senate alongside federal deputy Luizianne Lins, mayor of Fortaleza from 2005 to 2012.