Dispute over the succession of António Guterres at the UN takes on the shape of a papal election

Perhaps not even the election for Pope has as many twists and turns as the election for UN Secretary General. Insisting on the comparison, so far there are no smoke signals about who will succeed the Portuguese António Guterres in the post, from January 2027. The announcement will come out soon.

There is talk of a nomination based on two unprecedented requirements: someone from the Latin American or Caribbean region and a woman. However, everything could change in this somewhat veiled choice of the Security Council, with five permanent and ten rotating members.

Two secret votes have already been held, and who knows how many more will come. In the first, Rebeca Grynspan, economist and former vice president of Costa Rica, came out on top. In the second, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, former minister of Guyana, took the lead. And a late competitor, diplomat Olara Otunnu, from Uganda, shows stamina.

There are other competitors, including former Chilean president and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, candidate from Brazil and Mexico, and Argentine Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Consultations continue until someone reaches nine votes in favor, without any vetoes from permanent members. From there, the name can go to a referendum by the General Assembly.

Today, internal and unofficial tables, divided into votes of encouragement, discouragement or "no opinion", resemble electoral polls, in a dispute in which new names may still emerge. Observers note everything, even sudden changes to candidates' Wikipedia profiles. For example, look for a topic titled "Controversies" in Grynspan's biography.

Not so exciting, but crucial, is thinking about what is expected of who will lead the organization. Guterres leaves office after facing pandemic, wars, ethnic cleansing, autocracies. His effort to promote internal reform of the institution is undeniable. In 80 years, the UN has accumulated thousands of mandates; Some of them have expired, and now the organization is facing dramatic budget cuts.

The secretary general did a lot, but perhaps he is frustrated by what he failed to do, such as using all means to avoid extermination in the Gaza Strip.

It is no surprise that Kofi Annan's role in East Timor in the late 1990s has been remembered. He led the negotiations to free this small country from the Indonesian yoke. He mobilized Olympus by taking advantage of Article 99 of the UN Charter: "The Secretary-General may draw the attention of the Security Council to any matter which, in his opinion, threatens the maintenance of international peace and security." He did not act as a firefighter. It went further.

This week a manifesto by Graça Machel, an African leader who fought for the independence of her country, Mozambique, former Minister of Education and respected intellectual, was circulated. Machel asks that the General Assembly, with its 193 Member States, not just be the rubber stamp for the Council's final choice. This is not multilateralism, she says, just as electing a woman to Guterres' post is not altruism.

If the first secretary general is announced, a historical injustice will be corrected. Does anyone doubt that, in eight decades, remarkable women could have led, and renewed, the UN? I leave the question at the moment when the American journalist and activist Gloria Steinem dies, aged 92. An icon of beauty, feminism and modernity, she would never doubt that.