AfD leads polls ahead of state elections in Saxony-Anhalt

The parties still have two days to convince voters. The poll numbers before the state elections are relatively stable. But a lot of voters still seem undecided.

The AfD is clearly ahead in the polls before the election in Saxony-Anhalt. (Archive image) Photo: Peter Gercke/dpa

Magdeburg. In Saxony-Anhalt, the final campaign spurt begins today before the state elections on Sunday - and in the latest survey the AfD is still well ahead of the CDU. In the survey conducted by the Elections Research Group on behalf of ZDF, the AfD and its top candidate Ulrich Siegmund achieved 41 percent, one point more than a week ago. The Christian Democrats are hoping for another term in office for Prime Minister Sven Schulze and remain unchanged at 23 percent.

With an election result like the one in this survey, the AfD would miss its goal of governing alone, but it would also be difficult to form a government bypassing it. The CDU would therefore have to rely on the support of the Left in order to form a minority government with the SPD and the Greens against the AfD, which is classified by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Saxony-Anhalt as definitely right-wing extremist. In the CDU there is an incompatibility decision against “coalitions and similar forms of cooperation” with the Left and the AfD.

According to the survey, the Left is in third place with 11.5 percent - 1.5 points less than the research group determined the previous week. The SPD lost 0.5 points and got 8.5 percent, the Greens remained unchanged at 6 percent. The BSW with 4 percent (plus 1 point) and the FDP with 3 percent would not get over the five percent hurdle, the other parties together would reach 3 percent. An alliance of CDU, SPD and FDP currently governs Magdeburg.

The AfD also has a clear lead in other surveys

According to the pollsters, 26 percent of those surveyed are not yet sure who or whether they want to vote. The Elections Research Group surveyed a total of 1,044 eligible voters from September 1st to 3rd. According to ZDF, the survey is representative.

The AfD's clear lead over the CDU is consistent with surveys from other institutes. In a survey by the opinion research institute Insa on behalf of “Nius”, the AfD was recently at 43 percent and the CDU at 22 percent. Infratest dimap saw the AfD at 42 percent and the CDU at 22 percent in a survey for ARD at the end of August.

Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.

Merz remains isolated in the election campaign

Chancellor Friedrich Merz was also on the road as an election campaigner on Thursday - and once again warned of the economic and social consequences of a possible AfD state government. “Anyone who wants Germany to remain an open and liberal country, and anyone who wants Saxony-Anhalt to remain an interesting location that is also interesting in Europe, should not vote for the AfD on Sunday,” he said in Leuna during a joint visit to the UPM biorefinery with Prime Minister Schulze.

As was the case during the CDU leader's first election campaign appearance in Quedlinburg, there was no direct contact with voters - apart from a few employees at the refinery. Merz only met with the management and the works council. The Chancellor appeared in the election campaign for the first time on Monday, almost a week before the election.

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AfDCDUSachsen-AnhaltSPDFDPFriedrich Merz

Final spurt in the election campaign

Today several parties are holding their final rallies and want to fight for votes from voters who are still undecided. Prime Minister Schulze is holding appointments in Magdeburg, and the AfD is also present in the state capital with top candidate Siegmund and federal chairman Tino Chrupalla.

The Greens and the Left are also relying on prominent support: Left-wing top candidate Eva von Angern is in Magdeburg and Halle together with Heidi Reichinnek, Gregor Gysi and Dietmar Bartsch. The Greens want to fight for votes again in Halle and Naumburg, and top candidate Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz expects, among others, federal party leader Felix Banaszak. On Saturday, one day before the decision, there will be further election campaign events in Magdeburg and Halle.

Almost 1.7 million people are called to vote on Sunday. An AfD-led state government would be a novelty - the election will therefore be followed with great interest nationally and internationally.

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