Dramatic swings in opinion before the election: DN/Ipsos was so sure

The changes in public opinion in the last period before election day were dramatic. The Social Democrats slipped downwards, the Liberals got over the parliamentary barrier and the difference between the two sides was finally only 50,000 votes.

After the election, there was a discussion about the different results reported in the opinion polls. It can be stated that DN/Ipsos came closest of all in terms of the balance of power between the Tidö coalition and the parties that had Magdalena Andersson (S) as candidate for prime minister.

In the last poll, which ended on September 10, the opposition at the time led by 0.3 percentage points. The final election result gave a margin of victory of 0.7. DN/Ipso's survey pointed to a mandate distribution of 175–174. It was 176–173.

This can be compared with a lead for S, V, C and MP of 9.5 percentage points in the DN/Ipsos June survey. In summary: a historically large pick-up of the right side - which almost reached all the way to the front.

Last week's polls show that S and its allies took home the victory despite many voters having no clear idea of ​​what policy it would deliver in practice. Only one in four answered that they got a clear picture during the election campaign of what an S-led government would do.

Significantly fewer doubted what a right-wing victory would bring. Only one in five felt that they had a unclear picture of what awaited a government led by the Moderates.

- That says something about how well you have succeeded in your communication. The lack of common message may have been a problem for the parties in Magdalena Andersson's government documents, says Nicklas Källebring, opinion analyst at Ipsos.

The picture of what policy an S government would pursue has also not become clear since the election. The positions between S, V, C and MP are still locked.

According to DN/Ipso's surveys, it was the last week that the Liberals finally climbed over the barrier. It happened after Simona Mohamsson openly appealed for help from sympathizers of other parties.

DN/Ipsos asked questions directly to those who stated that they would vote for L, and the answers give a picture of why they saved the party in the Riksdag. Nicklas Källebring points out that the base is small and that the results should therefore be interpreted cautiously. The main features are nevertheless clear.

Just over a third described themselves as support voters. This means that without them L would not have hung on to the Riksdag. About the same number pointed to ideology and values ​​as a reason for choosing L. A smaller percentage stated the policy as important and even fewer pointed to the party leader.

- It was not Simona Mohamsson as party leader who made the decision, says Nicklas Källebring.

DN/Ipso's data shows underlying trends in public opinion that may be a partial explanation for the Tidö parties' rise. Even before the summer, it became clear that the mood among the voters had turned: the optimists became more, the pessimists fewer. It happened at the same time that the shootings decreased clearly and the economy started to pick up.

- The view of the government and the opposition also changed. The Kristersson government received increasingly better ratings from voters during the election campaign for its efforts, says Nicklas Källebring.

The last poll before the election was the first in the mandate period where a majority of voters judged that an S-led government would do a worse job.

During the closing weeks of the election campaign, the percentage of the electorate who believed in a change of power and an S-prime minister also decreased.

- The tailwind blew for the Social Democrats. We can probably assume that this trend continued until election day, says Nicklas Källebring.