Follow Our News on Google
Be informed instantly about developments.
preferred on Google
add as source
With the end of summer, all eyes in Europe turned to autumn and winter weather conditions, which are now slowly approaching. While we are wondering especially when the temperatures will drop, when the rainy days will begin, when exactly the autumn will make itself felt, when the first snowfalls will be seen this winter and what the course of the snowfalls will be throughout the winter, a remarkable picture has emerged in the long-term weather forecasts.
Meteorological models indicate that the strengthening El Nino weather event may have an impact on Europe's weather patterns in the coming months.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE: THERMOMETERS SHOWED 40 DEGREES IN MID-SEPTEMBER
El Nino is a large-scale climate event that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise above the long-term average. The strength of El Nino is tracked through 'Nino 3.4', a specific region in the Pacific that starts off the coast of South America and extends along the equator.
Under normal circumstances, sea surface temperatures in this region are expected to decrease gradually during the northern hemisphere summer. However, in 2026, on the contrary, temperatures appear to continue to rise. Current forecasts indicate that the 2026-27 El Nino may cross the threshold and surpass past strong El Nino events. Especially compared to the strong El Niño events that started in 1997, 2015 and 2023, this year's development is expected to be much more remarkable.
In Turkey, although the calendar is approaching mid-September, the hot weather continues to affect. Especially in the southern parts, values comparable to summer temperatures are measured. Thermometers recently showed 43 degrees in Adana, one of the hottest provinces of Turkey. The fact that temperatures have reached these levels even though it is mid-September reveals once again how long the effect of summer lasts in Turkey.
WHEN WILL AUTUMN WEATHER START?
Meteorologist Dr. working at Istanbul Aydin University. In his evaluation of next autumn, Faculty Member Güven Özdemir particularly drew attention to the month of October. According to Özdemir, current long-term models indicate that precipitation may increase in the south and west of Europe, and temperatures may remain above seasonal norms in most of Europe.
ATTENTION TO OCTOBER!
Dr. Faculty Member Güven Özdemir used the following statements in his evaluation of October:
"October may be the most interesting month of autumn. The models are more striking here. In the August update of Copernicus, there is a signal that autumn will be wetter in the south and west of Europe. At the same time, there is a high probability that temperatures will be above normal in most of Europe. The October forecast of the General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) also predicts more than normal precipitation across Türkiye."
Özdemir pointed out that when these two forecasts are evaluated together, the weather scenario that may emerge for Türkiye may not be a "cool and rainy autumn" in the classical sense. According to the expert's assessment, a warm, humid and occasionally very rainy weather pattern can be seen in Turkey:
"When we consider these two forecasts together, the possible scenario for Turkey is: Warm + humid + very rainy from time to time. In other words, the temperature will drop, but precipitation will begin. Instead of a classic 'cool and rainy autumn', this may be an autumn that fluctuates in the following: hot, very hot, sudden cooling, heavy rain and warm again."
COLD WEATHER MAY OCCUR IN THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER
While October stands out in the first part of autumn, especially the second half of November will be monitored more closely in terms of atmospheric conditions. Güven Özdemir said the following in his evaluation of this period:
"It is too early to be definitive about November. However, if the warm autumn continues, increased precipitation, and strong cold air inflows from time to time, we need to watch the second half of November more carefully. Because during that period, El Nino will strengthen, polar cooling will increase in the northern hemisphere, the jet stream may fluctuate more, and our seas and especially the Mediterranean will still remain warm."
WHAT WILL THE WEATHER BE THIS WEEK?
While temperatures are expected to be above or close to seasonal norms in the first days of the week in Istanbul during the week of September 14-20, atmospheric activity is expected to increase in the second half of the week and the possibility of cooling will increase.
Güven Özdemir made the following evaluation regarding the week of September 14-20:
"This week is a transition week that may be of significant value for Istanbul. However, let's make an important distinction here: It is not possible to see El Nino itself in Istanbul as 'this is what the weather will be like that day'. The effect of El Nino occurs mostly through atmospheric circulation, on a scale of weeks and months. On September 14-15, temperatures may be above or close to seasonal norms. The possibility of a transition to a more variable atmosphere increases on September 16-17. On September 18-20, there will be cooling. "The possibility of rain in some places is increasing compared to previous days, but at this stage it is not possible to say that a strong and continuous rain system is certain."
In the current weekly evaluations of the General Directorate of Meteorology, it is stated that temperatures are expected to be above seasonal norms in the central and western regions between 11-17 September. Evaluating the general character of the next week in Istanbul, Özdemir drew attention especially to the second half of the week and said: "Therefore, the main character of the week in Istanbul for now is that it is highly likely to be a week that starts hot, with atmospheric activity and the possibility of cooling increasing in the second half."
2026/2027 Winter Season Snowfall Forecast of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
EYES FOR THE FIRST SNOWfall IN LATE AUTUMN
One of the important issues that meteorologists draw attention to is the timing of the first snowfall of the season. According to the news in the Daily Mail, long-term forecasts predict that snowfall may remain below normal in many parts of Europe in November.
This situation raises the possibility that winter will start late in some regions. However, the expression 'below normal snowfall' should not be misunderstood. This statement does not mean that there will be no snow in a region. It means less snowfall than the average for many years. For example, in a region that receives a total of 100 centimeters of snow during the winter under normal conditions, if 25-30 centimeters of snow falls this season, the term 'snowfall below seasonal norms' can be used in meteorological terms. Therefore, the main issue that draws attention in the evaluations made for the coming winter is not the complete disappearance of snow; The possibility of a decrease in the amount and duration of snowfall.
THE EFFECT OF WARM WEATHER MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED IN DECEMBER
In the same news, long-term models across Europe highlight the possibility of below-normal snowfall in most of the continent for December. According to forecasts, air currents coming from the west and southwest directions may carry warmer air to the continent. Although these weather systems also bring precipitation, a significant portion of the precipitation may occur as rain instead of snow due to high temperatures. It is also of great importance how atmospheric systems will be shaped in the later periods of winter.
Current forecasts for January focus on the possibility that the high pressure system, which is expected to be effective in the southern parts of Europe, will affect air temperatures and precipitation patterns. The month of February is especially important. Under normal circumstances, in February, which is one of the periods when winter conditions are felt strongly and snowfall increases in many parts of Europe, the deficit in snowfall may become more evident if the high pressure system is effective for a long time.
CRITICAL QUESTION IN TURKEY'S WINTER: RAINFALL OR TEMPERATURE?
While it is wondered what kind of situation Turkey will encounter in terms of snowfall in the coming winter, temperature and precipitation conditions are expected to be decisive, especially in the western regions. In his evaluation of Turkey's winter season, Güven Özdemir stated that it would not be correct to evaluate snowfall only through a single climate event such as El Nino, and drew attention to the many factors that are effective in the atmosphere at the same time. Özdemir stated that there is a possibility of a season below average in terms of snowfall, especially in the western and low-lying areas, and made the following assessment:
"In terms of snow, we can say that it may be a risky, below-average season, especially for the western and low-lying areas. Because the basic mechanism that determines Turkey's snowfall is much more complex than El Nino. Siberian high pressure, cold air from the Balkans, Scandinavian blockade, the position of the Azores high pressure, the North Atlantic jet stream, cyclones in the Mediterranean and the temperature of the Black Sea work together. Especially in Istanbul, Marmara, Aegean and Western Black Sea, weather at -5 degrees and below at 850 hPa "Although the mass reaching Turkey is not enough on its own, it is a very important factor in terms of snowfall."
Türkiye'S WINTER WILL VARY BY REGION
According to Güven Özdemir, it is not correct to evaluate the whole of Turkey in a single winter scenario. Stating that regional differences can be quite evident, Özdemir evaluated Turkey through three different regional characters: Eastern Anatolia, Central Anatolia and highlands, and the Marmara-Istanbul-Aegean coasts.
Stating that the snow potential will remain strong in Eastern Anatolia due to the high altitude, Özdemir said that the complete weakening of the snow season in provinces such as Erzurum, Kars, Ardahan, Ağrı and Hakkâri will require stronger temperature anomalies. Özdemir used the following statements about Eastern Anatolia:
"It would not be right to expect a 'snowless winter' for Eastern Anatolia. Even if there is an increase in temperatures due to the high altitude of the region, the snow potential will remain high. In regions such as Erzurum, Kars, Ardahan, Ağrı and Hakkari, a much stronger temperature anomaly must emerge for the snow season to be completely weak. Therefore, it is not correct at this stage to talk about a winter scenario in which snowfall in the east completely disappears."
'THERE MAY BE A SOMETHING BELOW NORMAL SNOW POSSIBILITY IN CENTRAL ANATOLIA AND HIGHER SECTIONS.'
Özdemir stated that there may be a possibility of slightly below normal snow in Central Anatolia and higher regions, and added that, however, a few strong cold waves could significantly increase the snowfall in the region:
"There may be a slightly below normal chance of snow in Central Anatolia and high altitudes. However, it should not be forgotten that a few strong cold waves can completely change the picture here. A strong cold wave coming from the Balkans or northern sectors may cause serious snowfall in cities such as Ankara, Konya, Eskişehir and Kayseri. In other words, the general average of the season alone will not be decisive; when and under what conditions strong systems will arrive will be much more important."
Meteorologist Dr. working at Istanbul Aydin University. Faculty Member Güven Özdemir
REMARKABLE EVALUATION FOR ISTANBUL AND MARMARA
Stating that one of the most sensitive regions in winter is Marmara, especially Istanbul and its surroundings, Güven Özdemir said that snowfall in these regions should not be expected to have a long-lasting and frequent character throughout the season.
However, Özdemir underlined that this does not mean that Istanbul will not see snow, and pointed out that, on the contrary, short-term but very strong cold waves may be effective after periods where temperatures remain high for a long time.
"Marmara, Istanbul and the Aegean coasts are more sensitive regions in this respect. Snowfall should not be expected to be widespread, long-term and frequent throughout the season. However, this should not mean that Istanbul will not see any snow. On the contrary, in some winters, after a long period of warm weather conditions, a very severe cooling may occur for a few days and heavy snowfall may occur during this period. Then the weather may warm up again rapidly. Therefore, the character of winter for Istanbul may be short but effective cold waves between warm periods, rather than long-term cold."
'A WARM WINTER DOES NOT MEAN A SNOWLESS WINTER'
Güven Özdemir also particularly emphasized that the high general temperature average of the winter season does not mean that there will be no snowfall in that winter. According to Özdemir, the most critical factor in terms of snowfall in Turkey is the timing of cold waves and the period in which they are effective. Stating that an important distinction should be made at this point, the expert made the following assessment:
"We can make the most important emphasis here as follows: A warm winter does not mean a winter without snow. The timing of cold waves is very important in terms of snow in Turkey, rather than the average temperature of the winter. The general average temperature of a winter may be above normal, but a very strong cold wave may occur for a few days during that season. This short-term system may cause the most important snow event of the winter, especially in Istanbul and Marmara. Therefore, it would not be meteorologically correct to make a definitive assessment that 'it will not snow this winter' by looking only at the average temperature of the season."
