The summer of 2026 has not only been the hottest since 1961, when records of the official historical series of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) began. A team of climatologists from the agency has reconstructed a climate series that dates back to 1869 and their conclusion is that "it can be said that the summer of 2026 has been the warmest since, at least, that year. There is no precedent, therefore, for a summer with temperatures as high as that of 2026 in the last 157 years," they point out in the report in which they analyze the last season and which was presented this Monday.
According to their analysis, the average temperature in mainland Spain was 24.5 °C, which is 2.4 °C more than the average between 1991 and 2020. This record exceeds that of the summer of 2025 by 0.3 degrees, which until now held the record since 1961.
The intense heat that has predominated throughout the season is evident in the large temperature anomalies that have occurred in a large part of the Peninsula: they ranged between +1.5 and +3.5 °C, but in the northeast of the peninsula they were 3.5 and 4.5 °C higher than the average. Likewise, this summer has also been characterized by little rain: only the summers of 1994 and 2016 were drier, according to this analysis.
Autumn forecast
The Aemet has also offered this Monday the forecast on what the autumn will be like. And the meteorological models suggest that it will be warmer than usual throughout the country, and that it could be rainier in areas of the north and west of the peninsula. In fact, for this week temperatures more typical of August than the beginning of autumn are expected.
Specifically, meteorologists estimate that there is between a 60 and 70% chance that the climatological autumn (September, October and November) will be warmer than normal in Spain, compared to a 10% chance that it will be colder. Regarding rainfall, they estimate a 40% probability that it will be higher than normal in the north and east of the peninsula and in the Balearic Islands, compared to a 25% probability that it will be lower. In the Canary Islands, however, there is a 25% chance that autumn will be wetter than normal compared to a 40% chance that it will be drier.
If the analysis is limited to the October-November-December quarter, there is a 70% probability that it will be warmer than normal in most of Spain and a 50% probability that rainfall will be above normal in large areas of the north, center and west of the peninsula, compared to a 20% probability that the quarter will be drier. In the northwest of the country, there is a 70% chance that this quarter will be wetter than usual, compared to only 10% that it will be drier.
Four heat waves
In its analysis of the summer, Aemet also compiles and details the four heat waves that occurred during June, July and August: three of them affected the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and one in the Canary Islands.
The first episode of extreme heat in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands took place between June 20 and 27 - it therefore lasted eight days - and affected 42 provinces at its peak. For Aemet analysts, it was an intense heat wave and "especially significant due to the early date on which it occurred."
The second heat wave affected 37 provinces and lasted 23 days - between July 2 and 24 -, throughout which there were periods of special intensity.
On July 28, the third heat wave began in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, which lasted until August 20 and therefore lasted 24 days, affecting 32 provinces.
Regarding the Canary archipelago, a heat wave was recorded between August 1 and 5.
