Iceland: Opponents narrowly ahead in referendum on EU accession negotiations

In the referendum in Iceland on the start of EU accession negotiations, the opposing camp is just ahead. Accordingly, 50.1 percent voted against the government's proposal to resume negotiations and 49.9 percent voted in favor, as the broadcaster ‌RUV reported. The information is based on around 152,000 votes counted from a total of 270,000 eligible voters. After 87,000 votes were counted, the yes camp was still just as narrowly ahead. According to the election management, a reliable result is expected for Sunday afternoon.

“This is a big day, we have been waiting for this vote for years,” said Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir on Saturday. ‌Your government will continue its work regardless of the outcome.

A “yes” would enable talks with Brussels. Iceland would have to decide whether to actually join the EU in a second referendum at a later date. Proponents of the talks argue that membership could reduce the country's high interest rates and provide greater security in the face of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Opponents, however, fear a loss of sovereignty and control over fishing waters that are important to the country.

The country is struggling with stubbornly high inflation and interest rates that make mortgages expensive. The Icelandic central bank's key interest rate is 8.00 percent, while that of the European Central Bank (ECB) is 2.25 percent. However, opposition leader Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir, who led the "No" campaign, argued: "These ‌are not problems that Brussels will solve for us, but tasks that Icelandic politicians ‌have to solve."

Iceland had already applied for EU membership in 2009 amid a severe financial crisis, but a Eurosceptic government put the process on hold in 2013. The recent geopolitical turmoil has reinvigorated the debate that has been going on for decades. If the referendum is in favor of negotiations, the talks could begin by the end of 2026 and last 18 to 24 months, according to the Foreign Ministry.

Iceland's Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir wants to bring her country into the EU. But her campaign seemed strangely cautious. Read why here.