AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt shakes Friedrich Merz's coalition in Germany

The resounding victory of the far right in the elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt has turned German politics upside down. Alternative for Germany (AfD) obtained 43.8% of the votes and 39 deputies on Sunday, just three short of the absolute majority, and its candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has a great chance of governing. It would be the first time that the extreme right took the reins of a German land since the Second World War. The CDU, the Christian Democratic party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, collapsed from the 40 seats it had to 15. Both this formation and its main partner in the Government, the Social Democrats of the SPD, admit that the shock wave of these regional elections has shaken the foundations of the coalition.

"We are all deeply shocked," Merz said this Monday in Berlin: "This election result will have consequences. We cannot simply return to normality." The chancellor has admitted that the coalition government – ​​in which, in addition to his party and its sister party in Bavaria, the CSU, the social democrats of the SPD participate – has “an extremely low appreciation throughout the country.”

Merz has stressed that, although the rise of radicals is a European trend, Germany must accept its mistakes. “Without a doubt I have underestimated the fears of the population,” the Christian Democrat leader admitted, while reiterating that the Government must connect again “with the empathy and emotions of the people.”

Merz also wanted to address the international community, stressing that the institutions will guarantee that a hypothetical regional government led by the AfD does not destabilize German democracy. "This message is addressed to our friends in Europe and around the world. We know that Germany has a special responsibility due to its history. We will always defend our political order and our firm role in Europe," he assured.

The reality, however, is that the result in Germany puts the EU itself on alert. Saxony-Anhalt could be the first chapter of a far-right wave in the electoral cycle in which four of its five largest economies - France, Italy, Spain and Poland - will hold general or presidential elections in 2027.

The AfD program makes it clear that it is a Eurosceptic, anti-immigration, pro-Russian group and in favor of ending German support for Ukraine. “I am concerned about the parties that are somewhat blind to this [Russian] threat and say that we should not do anything about it,” said the head of EU diplomacy, Kaja Kallas.

SPD pressure

The cracks in the German coalition were felt on Sunday night, when the SPD vice-president and vice-chancellor, Lars Klingbeil, questioned some reforms agreed with the CDU and the CSU. In recent months, the Government has decided on profound changes in the pension system, taxes and other unpopular issues for citizens. “What has happened is a turning point,” Klingbeil said on ZDF television. "It is also a signal for Berlin because many people are dissatisfied with the reformist course. The result invites us to reflect on the policies of the federal government. And rest assured, we will do so."

The victory of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt did not take as much of a toll on the Social Democrats because they managed to remain in the midst of the debacle, with 9.3% of the votes. It will have eight deputies, only one less than in the recently concluded legislature.

The coalition between the three parties started in 2025 after the elections in which the AfD was already the second most voted force. “The federal government and the parties that form it have, of course, a responsibility for the outcome of the elections,” said Tim Klüssendorf, general secretary of the SPD, this Monday, reiterating the idea that the agreed reforms must be reconsidered.

The position of the Social Democrats anticipates the storm because Merz has assured that the CDU “is clear that it must continue on the right path.” That is, the Bundestag must approve the reforms in the coming months, as planned. And, of course, with the votes of the SPD.

But within the CDU, it is accepted that the resounding defeat of its candidate in Saxony-Anhalt is “a turning point.” “The results are catastrophic, we have to analyze with a cool head how to respond,” admitted the head of the Christian Democrat parliamentary group, Thorsten Frei, before the press. “We have never before experienced a situation in which a party classified as extreme right by the State intelligence services has achieved this majority.”

The media has been speculating for weeks about a hypothetical replacement of Merz as chancellor. "He is the wrong man in this position and in these times. The Government needs to start over, and this starts with Friedrich Merz," writes the editor of the weekly Der Spiegel, Dirk Kurbjuweit. For its part, the newspaper Bild published this Monday that the chancellor is “under total pressure” within his party.

Manfred Güllner, director of Forsa, one of the main German polling firms, recommended in August that the Christian Democrats “seriously consider” the possibility of replacing the chancellor. With Merz, according to their data, the CDU only loses votes to the AfD. Polls already point to a victory for the AfD at the federal level, although, unlike what will likely happen in Saxony-Anhlat, the cordon sanitaire would prevent it from forming a government.

The Chief Executive, however, has no intention of resigning: "Throwing in the towel is not an option. It is a question of empathy, of emotions, and we have to find a way to better explain our decisions," he stated this Monday.

For months it was assumed that September would be a month of life or death for the coalition in the federal government. Two more regional elections will be held in the coming weeks, in the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and in Berlin. In the first, it is expected that the SPD can revalidate its government coalition, although the AfD is convinced that success in Saxony-Anhalt can give it a boost. The scenario that the polls point to for Berlin is that the CDU will lose power to a left-wing coalition. A Christian Democrat defeat in the capital will only add pressure on Merz as party leader and as chancellor.

Votes from the nationalist left

It is not the first time that the AfD wins elections in a state. The anti-immigration and pro-Russian party was already the most voted force in the Thuringia elections in 2024, but it neither achieved the enormous support it has achieved in Saxony-Anhalt nor did it have room to break the sanitary cordon imposed on it by the rest of the parties. On this occasion, three seats short of the absolute majority, everything indicates that they will receive the support of the five deputies of the BSW party, which defines itself as left-wing but whose program is not as far removed from that of the AfD as one might assume.

The BSW candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, Thomas Schulze, confirmed this Monday that they are willing to abstain in the third vote so that the AfD assumes power thanks to a simple majority of the votes. “We will not participate in the cordon sanitaire coalition,” added Schulze.

Faced with this situation, Siegmund has modified his speech. After having made it clear that he would never agree with BSW, the possible future president of Saxony-Anhalt has shown himself open to doing so if it does not involve making “big” concessions. Furthermore, Siegmund warned that they also have no problem repeating the elections, because then they would receive “between 50% and 55% of the votes.”

“The objective is to form a stable majority and that is what we will negotiate in the coming days and weeks,” Siegmund said at a press conference. His statement has been interpreted as a veiled invitation to BSW to discuss a government pact.

This Monday, thousands of people demonstrated in several cities in Germany against the extreme right. Some 15,000 people, according to the organizers, have gathered at the Brandenburg Gate in the capital called by human rights NGOs, political parties and unions. “They are also responsible for what happened,” said Lidia K., a 40-year-old veterinarian, referring to the Christian Democrats.

For Martina Kuemmerle, 72 years old and originally from Halle, in Saxony-Anhalt, the interpretation of what happened is clear: "People are afraid. In the former GDR they continue to suffer from the industrial disaster after reunification." In his opinion, in the Western States the extreme right will also continue to grow, at the pace of the industrial crisis that Germany is suffering. “But what has hurt me the most are the acquaintances of my generation, academics and people educated without apparent problems, who have voted for the AfD.”