The current coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP will most likely lose its majority in the state elections this Sunday. According to all previous surveys, it will not be possible to form a government from the political center.
How are the majority relationships developing?
There are, roughly speaking, the following three scenarios: First, the AfD could achieve its own majority in the state parliament. However, none of the previous surveys show this. Secondly, the BSW could gain entry into the state parliament, which would make it more difficult for the centrist parties to form a government, but could make it easier for the AfD. Shortly before the election, the BSW signaled its willingness to work with the AfD. In the most recent surveys, the BSW is below the five percent threshold.
See F.A.Z. articles more often in your search results
F.A.Z. prefer on Google
The third scenario remains and, according to the most recent surveys, the most likely: The CDU is dependent on the approval of either the AfD or the Left faction to continue its government. This led to tensions within the party even before the election. Since the AfD, according to its top candidate Siegmund, does not want to enter into coalitions, forming a government could be complicated.
By when does the elected state parliament have to be constituted?
The state constitution provides a deadline of 30 days for this. The meeting is opened by the senior president. In neighboring Thuringia, this role fell to an AfD politician after the state elections, but he exceeded his authority in a memorable meeting. “A senior president is merely an official and has a serving function,” explains Halle constitutional lawyer Robert Böttner. The Thuringian Constitutional Court also made this clear after the meeting. After the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the role of senior president will not go to the oldest, but to the longest-serving member of the state parliament, and this will most likely not be held by the AfD, which has only been represented in the state parliament since 2016.
Who sets the rules of procedure?
When it is constituted, the state parliament does not yet have any rules of procedure; the parliament has to create these for itself at the beginning. “As a rule, the old rules of procedure continue to be used, but these can also be changed, even before the state parliament president is elected,” explains Böttner. The rules of procedure are decided in an open vote; a simple majority of the votes cast is required. So if the BSW gets into the state parliament, it could open up leeway for the AfD at this point by abstaining.
What role do the state parliament presidium and the council of elders play?
According to the current rules of procedure, the right to propose the President of the State Parliament lies with the largest parliamentary group, which, according to all previous surveys, is expected to be the AfD. “But there is no right to be elected President of the State Parliament,” says constitutional lawyer Böttner, pointing out that as part of the parliamentary reform in April, the rules of procedure were also changed in anticipation of the new State Parliament, which he considers constitutionally questionable.
The new regulation states that after a non-election, the right to make nominations does not remain with the largest parliamentary group, as was previously the case, but rather all political groups are allowed to nominate candidates. In Thuringia, Thadäus König, a politician who is not a member of the strongest faction (AfD), but of the second strongest faction (CDU), has already been elected president of the state parliament.
External content from YouTube
In order to display external content, your revocable consent is required. Personal data from third-party platforms (possibly USA) may be processed. More information.
The new rules of procedure from April also provide for a change in the vice-presidents of the state parliament: the faction that provides the president will not have an additional vice-president in the future. It is also no longer planned that there should be three vice presidents, but only “up to three”.
The background to the new rule is the experience that the AfD candidates for the office of vice president did not receive the required majority in the Magdeburg state parliament in the past. The votes on the state parliament president and his deputies, who together form the state parliament presidium and lead the plenary sessions, are carried out secretly.
The state parliament presidium, together with 13 other representatives, forms the council of elders, which draws up the parliament's agenda. However, the Presidium does not have the right to vote in the meetings of the Council of Elders.
If no president or presidium is elected, the state parliament will have to improvise. “This case is not regulated by the constitution,” says lawyer Böttner.
Is it possible that the current Prime Minister will remain in office for a long time?
Yes. The current Prime Minister Sven Schulze (CDU) and his cabinet will remain in office until the new Prime Minister is elected. This situation can last for months or years, as the state constitution of Saxony-Anhalt does not contain a deadline by which the election must take place. Such a deadline was deleted from the constitution after the state elections in 2016 because the coalition negotiations had to be conducted hastily at the time. Theoretically, it is even conceivable that the Prime Minister will remain in office beyond the subsequent state elections.
However, the question arises as to how capable such a caretaker state government would be, especially with a view to the coming budget. If there is no simple majority of votes cast in the state parliament for this budget, there will be a provisional budget management. “Part of the old budget is then available every month to make absolutely necessary expenses,” explains constitutional lawyer Böttner.
Who would you choose?
The state elections in Saxony-Anhalt will take place on September 6, 2026. Compare the parties' answers with your positions.
To the Wahl-O-Mat
What does “petrification” of the cabinet mean?
A caretaker prime minister could dismiss ministers from his cabinet, but could no longer appoint new ones. The cabinet “petrifies”. At least that is a long-standing, albeit controversial, principle in constitutional law, as Robert Böttner explains. Given the advanced age of some cabinet members, this question is quite virulent in Saxony-Anhalt.
But there is a detour: Prime Minister Schulze could have new ministers sworn in in the existing state parliament before the new state parliament is formed.
Can we force the election of a new prime minister?
If a parliamentary group requests this and the plenary session decides, the election of a Prime Minister must be placed on the agenda. “That’s a completely normal item on the agenda,” says Robert Böttner. The item can also be removed from the agenda with a simple majority of the votes cast.
However, once the election process has started, the constitution provides for a rigid timetable: If no candidate receives a majority of the members of the state parliament in the first round of voting in a secret vote, a second round of voting with the same quorum will take place within seven days. If no Prime Minister is elected, the state parliament can decide to dissolve it within a further 14 days with a majority of the members, which is otherwise only possible after six months.
If the state parliament does not dissolve, a third round of voting will take place immediately. Then, and this is important, all that is needed is a majority of the votes cast. The hurdle is still higher than in other countries, where an applicant only needs a relative majority, i.e. more votes than possible competitors.
But abstentions can still reduce the number of votes required compared to the first two rounds of voting. The BSW has already announced that it will abstain in the third round of voting in favor of the AfD if it enters the state parliament.
The AfD's top candidate Ulrich Siegmund rejects this in an interview with the F.A.Z. but off. “I wouldn’t go into the election without a majority,” says Siegmund. “What's the point of being formal Prime Minister if I don't have a parliamentary majority and can't get a single bill passed without having to soften up again somewhere,” explains the AfD politician. “You can only do it alone.” In fact, an AfD Prime Minister who received the required majority in a secret vote in the third round would then again have to rely on a majority of the MPs present in an open vote to pass the budget.
The third round of voting is also tricky because there are several ways to lower the necessary quorum. A member of parliament could, for example citing health reasons, stay away from the vote or leave the meeting for a short time - then this behavior would be visible to outsiders. However, if there is an abstention in the vote, no conclusions can be drawn about the individual MP. This also applies to casting an invalid ballot. Whether an invalid vote should be counted as not cast or as a no vote is a matter of legal debate.
The design of the ballot paper is also an important question. The constitutional lawyer Robert Böttner is of the opinion that “yes” (or, in the case of several candidates, their names) must be recorded on the ballot papers as well as the options “no” and “abstention”. In the third round of voting in 1994, the “No” field was missing in Saxony-Anhalt. Böttner, like other lawyers, considers the election of Prime Minister Reinhard Höppner (SPD) to be unconstitutional.
