Global growth slowed in the first half of 2026, without giving in to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East. “We were rather surprised by the resilience of the markets and by the responses provided,” summarizes Stefano Scarpetta, chief economist at the OECD. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts an increase in global GDP of 2.9% in 2026, a very slight improvement compared to June forecasts, then 3% in 2027 (-0.1% compared to June).
Strong tensions on gas prices
The energy shock was less violent than feared. Markets have cushioned the sharp drop in flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz thanks to lower demand, the mobilization of stocks and the reorganization of supplies, observe the latest “Economic Outlook” from the OECD. Additional supply provided by other producers, as well as the use of the Saudi East West Pipeline, also limited the surge in crude.
This respite is precarious. Global oil stocks were 507 million barrels lower in August than in February, a drop of more than 6%, according to the OECD. Fuel oil reserves in the European member countries of the organization have fallen by more than 20%, while the American strategic reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982. And on the gas market in Europe, stocks are at their lowest seasonal level for more than fifteen years. Competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the need to replenish reserves before winter raise fears of a new surge in prices.
Revived inflation
This energy tension should temporarily revive inflation, already supported by the increase in the price of certain agricultural products, affected by the weather conditions of recent months. These are likely to get worse. The OECD is therefore warning of an intense El Niño episode, likely to damage harvests in Central America, East Asia and Africa. “Further adjustments to monetary policies may be necessary if signs of generalized price pressures appear,” warns the institution.
In this uncertain landscape, artificial intelligence is a key driver. Investments in data centers, semiconductors and software support production, trade and demand for equipment. In the United States, this boom would offset the slowdown in consumption: the OECD raised its growth forecasts to 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. South Korea also benefits from improved prospects, thanks to its exposure to electronic components.
France is one of the negative exceptions. The OECD reduced its growth forecast for 2026 by 0.3 points, to 0.4%, after a sluggish first half. INSEE recently made this same forecast while the French government is counting on 0.5%. Weak private investment, heat episodes and political uncertainty explain this decline. Canada is experiencing a revision of the same magnitude, at 0.9%. For the euro zone as a whole, growth should stand at 1% in 2026 as in 2027, supported by an expected normalization of energy prices and by defense spending.
Another source of fragility is American trade policy. Since July, new customs duties imposed by Washington have brought the average effective rate on imports from 9.6% in June to 10.9% in mid-September, according to the OECD. The multiplication of trade barriers therefore adds to geopolitical, energy and climatic uncertainties. For 2027, the organization lowered its forecasts for most countries by 0.1 points: the resilience observed this year will not necessarily be enough to protect the global economy if the war continues and energy buffers run out.
