Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) has 60% valid voting intentions against 35% for Fernando Haddad (PT) in the dispute for the Government of São Paulo, according to a Datafolha survey released this Saturday (3), one day before the election.
The result indicates that Tarcísio, candidate for re-election, can win the dispute in the first round by having more than half of the valid votes, a count that excludes blank and invalid votes and which is used by the Electoral Court.
Datafolha publishes surveys with valid votes in the days before the vote, also removing undecided voters, to reflect the criteria used in publishing the official election results.
In valid votes, Vera Lúcia (PSTU) and Carlos Machado (PCB) appear with 2%; Carlos Machado (PCB) and Izadora Dias (PCO), with 1%.
In total votes, the governor has 55% and Haddad, 32%. Whites, nulls and respondents who said they will not vote for anyone totaled 6%, and 3% of voters declared themselves undecided.
In the event of a possible second round between the two, Tarcísio would also emerge victorious, by 58% to 35% — in this case, the institute takes the total votes into account.
Datafolha interviewed 2,520 voters from October 2nd to 3rd. The general margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points (3 in the case of valid votes), with a confidence level of 95%. The research is registered with the TSE under numbers SP-09337/2026 and BR-07025/2026 and was contracted by Folha and TV Globo.
In the previous Datafolha, released on Thursday (1st), Tarcísio had 56% of the valid votes in the first round, against 37% for Haddad. Considering the total votes, the governor appeared with 50% and the PT member, 33%.
The spontaneous survey, in which the candidates' names are not provided to respondents, shows that 38% cited Tarcísio and 21% Haddad. Still, 1% responded "for the current governor" and also 1% said "for the PT candidate". 6% provided other answers, and 27% said they were undecided.
One day before voting, 84% said they were completely decided and 16% admitted they could change their mind. The decided rate is similar between voters of Haddad (88%) and Tarcísio (87%).
The survey also shows that 55% of voters knew how to answer the correct number of their candidates at the polls, 5% mentioned the wrong numbers and 39% said they did not know.
The rate of respondents who know the correct digits is higher among those who voted for Haddad (69%), from the PT, than among Tarcísio (53%), affiliated with the Republicans. The governor's voters who do not know his ballot box number account for 40%, while those who vote for Haddad are 31%.
In the 2022 election, 521 thousand voters canceled their votes for the Government of São Paulo because they entered the PL number, which was Jair Bolsonaro's, instead of Tarcísio's party number.
Lula's former Finance Minister (PT) entered the election with the mission of consolidating a strong platform for the president in the country's largest electoral college and repeating, or improving, the results achieved in São Paulo four years ago.
The governor of São Paulo supports Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who reached the presidential race on the recommendation of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). However, the governor has carried out few public agendas alongside the presidential candidate since the beginning of the campaign.
In Datafolha this Saturday, Lula and Flávio appear technically tied in the 1st round poll: the PT member has 45% of the valid votes and the senator, 42%.
This Saturday, Haddad accompanied Lula on a walk along Avenida Paulista, in the capital, while Tarcísio was with Flávio at an event in Americana, in the interior of the state.
Considering the valid votes, the governor is ahead of Haddad in Greater São Paulo (56% to 40%). Tarcísio's advantage is even wider in the interior of the state, with 63% compared to 30% for the PT member.
Datafolha for the Senate in São Paulo showed a fourfold technical draw. Guilherme Derrite (PP) and André do Prado (PL) are numerically ahead, with 22% of valid voting intentions each, followed by Marina Silva (Rede) and Simone Tebet (PSB), with 20% each.
Marina and Tebet are on Haddad and Lula's ticket, while Derrite and André are on Tarcísio and Flávio's platform.
