The AfD could soon rule in Saxony-Anhalt. But certain MPs could go their own way and slow down the government, shows an analysis by the German Economic Institute.
Berlin. The German Economic Institute (IW) warns of conflicts in a possible AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt. The trigger could be representatives who are difficult to control. This is shown by an analysis by IW researchers Knut Bergmann, Matthias Diermeier and Dan Muncaster entitled “Direct mandates: When the broomstick wins the election”.
Diermeier wrote on the LinkedIn platform: “If the proverbial broomstick wins the election, the most radical candidates come into their own.” These could inspire “at the grassroots level”, but had “hardly any interest in finding the necessary compromises in government action”. “This is explosive,” he wrote.
In the state elections on September 6th, the AfD was the strongest force with 43.8 percent. With 39 of 83 seats, it missed an absolute majority. Top candidate Ulrich Siegmund announced that he would run for election as Prime Minister in December. For an absolute majority he needs at least 42 votes.
The AfD parliamentary group consists of 39 members. Of these, 38 were directly elected. With the exception of two constituencies won by the Left in Magdeburg and Halle, the AfD candidates were often unassailable ahead of their competitors from the CDU/CSU. In Eisleben the lead was 34.2 percentage points.
Directly elected MPs draw more of their political support from their own constituency than from the party leadership, the IW points out. This makes it harder for the party to commit them to a common line. Five of the directly elected AfD politicians were not even on the state list, Diermeier wrote. So they “don’t necessarily have the blessing of the state party.”
This is where the “broomstick” image comes into play. It means: In a constituency where a party is very strong, almost any candidate from that party can win. According to Diermeier, the AfD managed to win direct mandates with an “astronomical lead”.
According to the IW researchers, radical candidates who are not open to compromises in a government could come into parliament. They derive their legitimacy from their own constituency and are therefore “more difficult to discipline” for the party leadership, Diermeier wrote.
The IW observes similar conditions in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. There, 22 of the 32 AfD MPs were directly elected. Five were not on the state list. The outcome of the 2025 federal election also shows that such results can harbor potential for conflict.
At that time, the AfD won 42 of the 45 East German direct mandates outside Berlin. Twelve of these MPs did not have a place on the list, and several AfD politicians were already in dispute with the parliamentary group leadership at the time of the election. Including Maximilian Krah.
The former lawyer from Dresden appears again and again in court rulings and constitutional protection reports on the AfD. Its proximity to Russia and China is particularly striking. In the 2024 European election campaign, the AfD leadership imposed a ban on Krah from appearing, after which he left the federal executive board. They support him in his regional association in Saxony, which is classified by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution as definitely right-wing extremist.
In the opposition, “the common opposition” usually keeps a faction together, wrote Diermeier. But when it comes to government responsibility, conflicts could quickly arise. The researchers made a comparison with the USA.
According to Diermeier, only 43 of 435 constituencies for the House of Representatives are considered closely contested. In 1999 there were 101. Such narrow constituencies are called “swing states” in English. Radical candidates from President Donald Trump's MAGA movement have increasingly prevailed. They could inspire one's own base, but make the work of a government more difficult, wrote Diermeier.
As an example, he cited a case from October 2023. At that time, for the first time in US history, a chairman of the House of Representatives was removed from his post by a parliamentary vote. It was about Republican Kevin McCarthy. The revolt against him was led by Republican hardliner Matt Gaetz.
He had accused McCarthy of making common cause with Democratic President Joe Biden instead of working for the Republican faction. The trigger was a budget dispute: McCarthy had used the votes of Democrats to avert an impending government shutdown and passed an interim budget.
The McCarthy case in the USA shows how quickly internal party disputes can block government. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD could now face such a test. If the situation gets out of control, it could quickly become an “explosive government mix,” warns the IW.
