Tropical Depression TD29 is expected to intensify into Typhoon No. 25 "Shuliki", and the future path is still uncertain

Tropical depression TD29 will intensify into Typhoon No. 25 "Shuliki" as soon as today (23rd), and its intensity will reach at least the mid-level level in the future. The current path is still divided into early northward turning and maintaining westward intrusion into Taiwan. If it continues to move westward, the outer circulation is expected to be close to next Monday (28th), and the greatest impact will be on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Wu Shengyu, a senior consultant at a weather risk company, said on Facebook that Typhoon Shuliki is about to form today and will gradually increase in intensity under good atmospheric and oceanic conditions. When it approaches the waters east of Taiwan, its intensity will be at least a moderate typhoon. However, forecast data also shows that the scope of this typhoon's future development is not large. The estimated radius of the storm circle is about 200 kilometers, which is a medium to small type.

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As for the path, it will move steadily from northwest to northwest before Saturday (26th), approaching the waters southeast of Taiwan. When the typhoon comes to the southeastern waters of Taiwan on Saturday, its guiding force will be significantly weakened, and the typhoon will be trapped in a saddle-shaped field. It is expected that the movement speed will slow down significantly from the weekend to next Monday (26-28).

There are two possibilities for the development after slowing down. One is that it has the opportunity to turn to the north and move slowly, slowly move northward in the sea east of Taiwan, and then gradually accelerate away from the northeast; some other forecasts believe that Typhoon Shuliji may fail to turn, that is, it will fall into a saddle shape and slow down for a period of time before returning to the northwest and west path and continuing to approach Taiwan.

Next Monday, as the outer clouds of Typhoon Shuliji approach, the chances of rainfall will increase in the northern and northeastern areas of the windward side. The weather in other places will not change much. If the northward turning position is far away from Taiwan, then the impact of the peripheral cloud system on the weather on land will be relatively limited.

On the contrary, if it maintains its northwest-west path and continues to approach Taiwan, next Tuesday and Wednesday will become a weather pattern where typhoons will directly attack. Therefore, the future dynamic changes of this typhoon are still quite large, and the opportunity of invading Taiwan cannot be completely ruled out. The changes in forecast trends today and tomorrow still need to be continuously observed and paid attention to.