Scholars analyze Sichuan-Xi meeting: It is difficult for the United States and China to return to cooperation, Taiwan should guard against cognitive warfare

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump are expected to hold talks in Washington, D.C., in late September. Scholars have analyzed whether Trump will have a reconciliation meeting between the U.S. and China and will not return to cooperation. Now there are "suspicion of the United States" and "abandonment of Taiwan" theories, saying that the United States will stop arms sales to Taiwan. This is the same cognitive warfare operation as the last Trump-Xi meeting.

The Asia Political Economics and Peace Exchange Association held a symposium today on "Forecast of the Sichuan-Xi Summit - The New Situation of U.S.-China Competition and Taiwan's Strategic Position" and invited Mainland Affairs Council Vice Chairman Shen Youzhong, experts and scholars to attend the symposium to analyze the Sichuan-Xi Summit.

Wang Wangochen, an associate researcher at the First Institute of China Economic Research Institute, pointed out that the United States and China did not take much action on tariffs after May. Since May, in terms of investment, the United States has vetoed one or two Chinese-funded mergers and acquisitions. The U.S. Federal Information Commission has banned Chinese routers and transformers. The U.S. Department of Defense has a list of military-related companies. The U.S. has cooperated with the Ministry of Education to prohibit receiving subsidies from the Department of War. Those listed include Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Fudan University.

Regarding the possible content of the Trump-Xi meeting, Wang Guochen assessed that in terms of procurement, China will increase its orders to the United States, and its purchases of U.S. soybeans and beef will reach record highs. This part has been determined. In addition, because China has sanctioned Boeing, it will not buy it now. The agenda of the Trump-Xi meeting has been shortened to only one day, and Taiwan will basically not be mentioned.

Wang Zhisheng, secretary-general of the China Asia-Pacific Elite Exchange Association, said that this Sichuan-Xi meeting was extremely hasty and even lasted less than a day. Xi Jinping did not go to the United Nations General Assembly. The intersection between the U.S. and China that can be formed during the second Trump-Xi meeting may be very limited. It will not build "constructive strategic stability", and the economic aspect may even just be "ceremony." China also knows that it has to come up with souvenirs to make Trump a good candidate in the mid-term election, and there will be a third meeting in the future.

Wang Zhisheng analyzed that China will definitely talk about the Taiwan Strait issue, but it will only talk more and less, but the United States should still ignore it accordingly. In the end, it should express its own opinions, but this does not mean that the "constructive strategic stability" proposed by the United States and China will stagnate, and the United States and China will continue to compete. At present, there is another theory of "suspecting the United States and abandoning Taiwan", saying that the United States will stop arms sales to Taiwan. These are the same cognitive warfare operations as the last Trump-Xi meeting.

Zhong Zhidong, an assistant researcher at the National Security Research Institute of the National Defense Academy, said that the outside world is very concerned about whether the "Trump-Xi meeting" will discuss the Taiwan Strait issue. When Trump first negotiated with China, he deliberately did not discuss the Taiwan issue. However, in Trump’s second term, the proportion of issues related to the Taiwan Strait has increased. Trump even discussed arms sales to Taiwan with China, causing a huge shock to the outside world. Therefore, before this Trump-Xi meeting, the United States will not make a big deal out of it, and there is no need to make China look bad.

Zhong Zhidong said that Trump "says all the good things and does the best" to Xi Jinping, but Trump also knows that the relationship between the United States and China is "short-term, long-term, long-term." Of course the United States is aware of China's problems and will definitely be prepared for China. The United States abandoned Taiwan twice, once in 1949, and only pulled it back when the Korean War broke out.

Zhong Zhidong said that the second time was when it severed diplomatic relations with the Republic of China in 1979. The United States wanted to win over China to check and balance the Soviet Union, and Taiwan was sacrificed. When the United States wanted to win over China, it did not give up arms sales to Taiwan. Now the situation between the United States and China requires competition, and it is judged that the United States will not compromise with China on arms sales to Taiwan.

Wu Sezhi, an assistant professor at the General Education Center of Taipei University of Marine Science and Technology, said that Trump will not be a reconciliation between the United States and China and will not return to cooperation. For Trump, it is necessary to prevent the Sino-US economic and trade conflict from affecting the US economy before the US midterm elections. Xi Jinping has the political goal of entering his fourth term. There is room for "short-term transactions" between the two sides, but this does not mean that the United States and China will cooperate.

Wu Sezhi concluded that China has thrown out its bargaining chip before the Trump-Xi meeting. The United States cannot approve arms sales to Taiwan, and Taiwan must show that it cannot be traded. The Beijing authorities put the Taiwan issue in the Trump-Xi meeting to put pressure on the issue. Taiwan must pay attention to the risk of possible spillover. The CCP may want to manipulate the "suspicious theory of the United States" and "suspicious Sichuan theory." China is also testing the extent of the United States' concessions on the Taiwan issue.

Wang Zhanxi, an associate researcher at the National Security Research Institute of the National Defense Academy, said that the Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will pave the way for next year's 21st Party Congress. In addition to mentioning comprehensive and strict governance of the party, Xi Jinping will also prove that he can resist the pressure of the United States. Therefore, the CCP will want to bring back a report card for this Sichuan-Xi meeting.

Hong Puzhao, an assistant professor at the Center for General Education at Taipei City University, said that not all issues between the United States and China can be traded. Trump hopes to produce a report card before the U.S. midterm elections, so he hopes that China can assist in purchasing agricultural products.

Hong Puzhao believes that American politics should not be regarded as "Trump has the final say." Although the United States is a presidential system, it also has the separation of powers. The Taiwan Strait security and Indo-Pacific security administrative teams will provide suggestions and references. Trump cannot be arbitrary and one-sided, not to mention that the support for Taiwan in the U.S. Congress is cross-party. Although Trump attaches great importance to transactions, it is inferred that the United States will deal with China according to the logic of transactions, so it will not let China ask for anything.