Consequences of the Saxony-Anhalt election for federal politics and the reform course

Nobody knows how many votes the planned abolition of the “pension at 63” cost the CDU in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt. What is becoming apparent after the AfD's victory is that the already manageable group of reformers in the black-red coalition in the federal government will find it even more difficult to implement cuts in government spending in order to ignite growth forces in the economy after this election result.

The CDU was just over 17 percent, the SPD at nine - the voter verdict in Saxony-Anhalt was also a reckoning with the policies of the governing parties in Berlin. The decided cuts in statutory health insurance, the planned pension reform, the rising costs of care: the feeling of many people that the state is demanding more and more from them could not be alleviated even by the temporarily revived fuel discount.

Socio-political dream castles

If you add up the almost 44 percent for the AfD and the almost nine percent for the Left, more than half of the voters chose a party with extreme positions. The economic policy strategy on the right and left of center is to build dream castles in which more pensions, more social benefits and more state subsidies await voters if only the money could finally be taken away from foreigners or the rich.

SPD leader and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil indicated on election evening that he wanted to weaken the reform course in Berlin. After the election is before the election. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig (SPD) has been putting pressure on people for weeks not to cut state benefits such as early retirement without deductions, even if this is causing the social systems more and more financial difficulties.

Centrifugal forces everywhere

As with every bad election result, the Social Democrats convince themselves that only an even more caring state and an even more left-wing policy can prevent further losses of voters to the AfD. These centrifugal forces also exist in parts of the CDU. Economic policy will be understood even more as a redistribution policy to close supposed gaps in justice.

One of the most bitter graphics of the election evening for the CDU is the one according to which voters believe the AfD has greater economic competence than the CDU. It was precisely this area of ​​expertise that Friedrich Merz used to promote his party in the federal election campaign and that, alongside the prospect of a stricter migration policy, brought him to the Chancellery.

But not much of the big promises remained. Debt discipline is a thing of the past. This week, a budget plan is being negotiated in the Bundestag that provides for a trillion euros in additional debt within five years. The recently passed tax reform brings additional burdens instead of relief for many citizens. And social security contributions are not falling, but are continuing to rise.

The Union and SPD can only score points in the group of pensioners. The AfD won an absolute majority among younger people, whether workers, employees or self-employed people, in Saxony-Anhalt. The right-wing populists are enticing with lower taxes, lower energy costs and the much-promised, but largely absent, reduction in bureaucracy. The fact that a move away from the euro and the EU internal market and a turn towards Russia would cause enormous economic damage to Germany does not bother the party's supporters much.

As bitter as it is, there is currently no political majority for a policy that creates better conditions for economic growth, sustainably and not just in the form of a debt-financed flash in the pan. The current distribution struggles can only be resolved with more growth.

A good time for a Merz agenda

The big question is whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) still has the strength and the necessary support to flee forward in light of these election results. Now would be a good time for a Merz agenda.

He could tell citizens how much more they would have net if the federal government no longer spent almost 80 billion euros a year on subsidies. How much more pension they would get if, as in other countries, part of the contributions were finally invested in the capital market. How much prosperity could arise if Germany no longer slowed down structural change in the economy.

Friedrich Merz could do what makes the AfD so successful: paint a positive picture of the future. If you go through with it, you want to shout to the Chancellor. Germany cannot afford a standstill in economic policy.