You have to bet. This is not voluntary, you are on board. A Democratic elected official, a rival caught red-handed and a tailor-made law. In the United States, Representative Don Davis wants to ban federal candidates from betting on their own election. Its target is prediction markets, these platforms where you buy contracts on the outcome of an event. The timing is charming, because David Lisnard's rating on Polymarket has been the talk of France since September. Hence the same question on both sides of the Atlantic: who can bet on an election without influencing its result?
No Betting on Your Own Race Act: what the text provides
Don Davis, Democratic Representative from North Carolina, filed his plan this week. The text targets federal candidates, but also their spouses, their dependent children and their campaign committees, according to CNBC. It prohibits them from buying, selling or holding contracts linked to their own racing. Victory, participation, share of votes, margin or ranking, everything goes, primaries included. The penalty is $10,000 per violation, or three times the net gain if that amount is greater.
The elected official first justified his approach with a sporting analogy: “We do not want our athletes to bet on their matches. A candidate for federal office should be treated in exactly the same way. » We will have fun (so to speak) with the calendar. In August, Kalshi suspended his Republican rival, Laurie Buckhout, for three years, with a penalty of $2,589.96. Yet she had bet less than $1,000 on her own race. “I bet on myself. Literally. It was a stupid mistake,” she admitted. Priceless self-confidence, certainly. The platform had already ruled out three other candidates for five years in April. Finally, in Congress, the Senate adopted a resolution targeting senators and staff, while the House did not vote on any comparable text.
Lisnard on Polymarket: a rating is not a survey
In France, the rise of David Lisnard is fueling debates on Then it hit 13.3 cents on October 6, by our count. In other words, bettors give him a 13.3% chance of winning, which has nothing to do with voting intention. On the other hand, Ifop only measured it at 3.5% at the end of September.
This market remains a thin market. On October 4, $203,000 changed hands in one day through 137 wallets, a record for this contract. Already, on September 30, a recent account had bet more than $105,000 against the mayor. A Yale study cited by DNA concludes that only 3% of accounts actually move prices. Lisnard responded on X: “Don’t waste any more time trying to convince me: I will vote for myself. » The Chained Duck, however, mentioned possible manipulation, without proof at this stage, according to Bourse Inside.
Insider trading and manipulation: who has the right to bet?
A candidate knows the state of his campaign better than anyone. This is why Kalshi rules prohibit betting on an event that you can influence. Davis spoke of “trading on privileged information” about his opponent. But the opposite also exists: betting to inflate odds, creating buzz and then presenting yourself as a favorite.
In France, betting on an electoral deadline is not authorized, let us remember already in 2024. The ANJ, the gaming regulator, has also classified Polymarket as an illegal gambling offer. She then ordered the site to be blocked on July 16, 2026. But no French text targets the candidates themselves. Davis' law, if it passed, would therefore be ahead of Paris. Lisnard claims not to know how the platform works, according to Bourse Inside, which says nothing about his supporters. Total gray area.
