AfD is the strongest force in Saxony-Anhalt, but no government majority

The provisional result of the election has been determined. With 43.8%, the AfD received by far the most votes in Saxony-Anhalt. However, it is not enough for an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament. 39 of the 83 seats go to the AfD.

The CDU (17.2%), SPD (9.3%) and Greens (8.9%), who could easily imagine a coalition with each other, only have 31 seats. The Left (8.6%) has eight seats in the new state parliament. The BSW (5.3%) has five seats.

The question of the coming days and weeks is now how a new government can be formed.

Who governs Saxony-Anhalt in the transition period?

There is no transition period without a government. CDU Prime Minister Sven Schulze and his ministers will remain in office until a new head of government is elected.

By when does the new state parliament have to meet for the first time?

The newly elected state parliament must meet no later than the 30th day after the election, i.e. on October 6, 2026. This is what it says in the state constitution of Saxony-Anhalt. The President of the old state parliament, Gunnar Schellenberger (CDU), convenes the newly elected state parliament.

The first meeting is chaired by the most senior MP; i.e. from the person who has been a member of the state parliament for the longest time. In the first meeting, for example, the rules of procedure are voted on and a new President of the State Parliament is elected.

When will the election of the Prime Minister take place?

In Saxony-Anhalt there is no legal deadline by which the new state parliament must have elected a new prime minister. The idea is that forming governments can be difficult.

The following procedure is usual: After talks about a coalition or cooperation between several parties - in whatever form - have been concluded, the election is put on the agenda. But it would also be possible for a group of MPs to request that the election be put on the agenda before talks about forming a government have been concluded.

How is the new Prime Minister elected?

The election of the Prime Minister is a secret vote. Surprises are therefore possible and can have a significant impact on the election, especially given this close result. Several candidates can compete against each other in the election. There can be a total of three ballots.

In the first round, the person who receives the majority of the votes of all MPs is elected. So you need an “absolute majority”. This means: At least 42 of the 83 MPs must vote for a candidate.

If no candidate receives this majority, a second round of voting must take place within seven days. Here too, whoever gets the majority of the votes of all MPs is elected.

If that doesn't work, an intermediate step follows. The state parliament must vote within 14 days on whether to dissolve. This also requires a majority of all members of the state parliament. The result would be new elections.

If the state parliament does not dissolve, a third round of voting will take place immediately. A “simple majority” is sufficient here. This means: whoever receives the majority of the votes cast is elected. Abstentions are not counted. That's why a candidate can be elected in the end for whom the majority of all MPs did not vote.

What is a minority government?

The classic situation is: After being elected, a prime minister can rely on a majority in the state parliament. With this majority, he usually pushes through the legislative proposals that his government initiates.

If the Prime Minister cannot rely on a majority in the state parliament after his election, it is called a minority government. The government factions together do not have an absolute majority in the state parliament. For individual projects, a government is then dependent on the votes from other factions. From 1994 to 2002, Saxony-Anhalt was governed by a minority government made up of the SPD and the Greens.

Which scenarios are possible now?

Scenario 1: AfD-led government:

The AfD received the most votes, but it does not have an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament. A classic coalition with the AfD excludes all other parties. The AfD also did that before the election. However, on election evening, top candidate Ulrich Siegmund revised this and announced that he would extend his hand to all parties that were willing to implement the AfD's policies.

The AfD could also try to lead a minority government. She would then need votes from other parliamentary groups for legislative proposals. Votes from other factions would also be needed to elect Siegmund as Prime Minister. According to the CDU's decisions, cooperation with the AfD is out of the question; the SPD, the Greens and the Left have also ruled it out. In the third round, however, even a single dissident from another faction could be enough for Ulrich Siegmund to get more votes than Sven Schulze and become Prime Minister.

Scenario 2: CDU-led government:

The CDU, SPD and Greens together only have 31 of the 83 seats in the state parliament. So you are far from a majority. The CDU has ruled out a coalition with the Left. If the CDU, SPD and Greens want to form a minority coalition and can convince the Left to tolerate and elect Sven Schulze or another CDU candidate, they would have 39 votes. The Left announced before and after the election that it could imagine this happening under certain conditions. However, this would still not result in a simple majority that would be enough for the election in the third round. Because the AfD also has 39 votes. If no MP dissents, a stalemate would ensue.

BSW: Tips the scales

The BSW, with its five representatives, is the tip of the scales. If they abstain from voting for the Prime Minister, a stalemate could arise in the third round of voting. Claudia Wittig, the BSW's top candidate, repeated on election evening that she did not want to vote for either Ulrich Siegmund or Sven Schulze. However, they are prepared to work with the AfD on certain issues. The decisive factor could then be whether the BSW can be persuaded to vote by the AfD or by the CDU, SPD and Greens. Even a single member of the BSW could be enough to elect one or the other as Prime Minister in the third round of voting.

What does the term “government mandate” mean?

After an election it is often said: Whoever has the most votes is tasked with forming the government. This is a purely political term. It is obvious that the party with the most votes is trying to form the government. However, this is not legally mandatory. Nobody gives this party a formal mandate to form a government. What is crucial is that a government gets a majority in one of the ballots. Even parties that do not have the most votes can strive for a government majority. Whether they do that is again a political question.

How does it work in other federal states?

There is a minority government in two federal states. In Thuringia, Prime Minister Mario Voigt of the CDU governs in a coalition with the BSW and SPD, which does not have a majority in the state parliament. However, there have currently been resignations from the BSW faction.

Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer from the CDU governs together with the SPD without a majority of their own. In order to pass laws, the government in these two federal states must repeatedly organize majorities for specific legislative proposals - for example with the BSW or the Left.

How could new elections come about?

If the prime minister election turns into a long deadlock, the question of new elections would also arise. The state constitution of Saxony-Anhalt provides for three options for new elections:

Ulrich Siegmund already spoke of new elections on election evening. This may be exactly what the AfD is counting on.