Elections in Latin America reveal support for democracy despite preference for right-wing leaders

When Brazilians go to the polls this Sunday (4), they will vote for a Latin America that appears to be heading to the right. In the last two years, conservative candidates have accumulated electoral victories in the region. Two opinion polls, however, suggest there is more going on than that label.

The AmericasBarometer, a Lapop/Vanderbilt survey in 21 countries in the region, records a widespread recovery in support for democracy: around two-thirds of those interviewed say they prefer it to any other form of government, six percentage points more than in 2023.

The new Latinobarómetro, carried out in 17 countries and released last Friday (2), also finds societies that, although dissatisfied with their institutions, do not seem willing to do without them. In other words, the average voter does not seem to make an immediate association between electing a right-wing leader and choosing an autocrat like Nayib Bukele or Daniel Noboa.

Countries help to understand this apparent paradox.

El Salvador is perhaps the most revealing case. Since 2023, support for democracy has grown by seven points. The country has AmericasBarometer's lowest crime victimization rate at 8%, and Nayib Bukele, at 83%, is the most popular president in the survey.

At the same time, Salvadorans are those who most accept a conception of democracy in which the elected president governs with fewer obstacles from the opposition, with an inflated Executive capable of subjecting to its power institutions that, according to the democratic manual, should be free, such as the Justice and the Legislature.

For many of them, researchers suggest, elections and the ability to deliver results confer democratic legitimacy, even if it is not perceived that an inflated Executive harms democracy. An elected president who has drastically reduced violence can be seen as demonstrating that democracy works — even if institutions designed to limit his power are weakened.

The word "democracy" takes on other forms in the Southern Cone. In Chile, Argentina and Uruguay, support for the regime is more associated with the defense of civil liberties, the separation of Powers and the rights of minorities. Argentina's presence in this group is interesting: the country elected Javier Milei, but this did not make a liberal conception of democracy disappear from the Argentines' responses.

Priorities also change as you cross the continent. The economy remains a central concern in the region; In Ecuador, insecurity is especially heavy. Different societies demand different things from their governments — and they can judge the functioning of democracy by its ability to deliver these specific demands, not necessarily democratic demands.

In the case of Ecuador and Peru, for example, democracy comes to be considered an important value if it reduces high levels of violence, not if it guarantees the independence of Powers or the defense of human rights.

Salvadorans want to live without fear; Ecuadorians demand security; Argentines can elect Milei without necessarily giving up the counterweights; and Latin Americans who barely trust their parties still say they need them.