It is a September that will be remembered as extreme. And not just because of the still mid-summer temperatures in a completely unusual autumn. Many Germans see this September 2026 as a tipping point in a threatening political development. Three state elections in East Germany this month have further exacerbated the already heated political climate in Germany and brought historic results with potentially serious consequences. First, the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt achieved a record result of almost 44 percent that was unimaginable two years ago, meaning that a right-wing extremist party could take over the government in a federal state for the first time since the end of Nazi rule.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD also became the strongest party, but only just ahead of Manuela Schwesig's SPD, which, as "Woman against Blue", took the decisive edge off the right-wing extremist tsunami in the last few meters. In return, the CDU sank into a historical dimension, for which the term “disaster” chosen by Friedrich Merz seems to be an understatement. For the first time since 1949, the CDU, which ran in the northeast 36 years ago as a people's party with Unity Chancellor Helmut Kohl as the driving force, was thrown out of a state parliament. And in Berlin the Left triumphed with its top candidate Elif Eralp. She has a good chance of taking over the Red Town Hall in the former walled city, regardless of her party's anti-Semitism and clan problem. Despite all the mantra-like appeals from leading politicians from the CDU/CSU and SPD that after these dramatic election results there should be no “business as usual” in government policy, the same thing continues in the coalition: constant bickering over the long-running issues of care, pensions and taxes.
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Best talk show controversy for Sandra Maischberger and her show of the same name, which this time is not running at the usual time of night, but at the end of a historic month as a special edition at prime time. And the traditional commentary panel at the beginning with three guests delivers an exchange of blows without much consensus between the discussants. Christian Rach, known as a television chef and who also moderates a debate podcast, immediately backs the line of CDU Health Minister Carsten Linnemann on the subject of care and health care reform and expresses his horror at the SPD's veto. First close the dramatic billion-dollar gap in long-term care insurance through cuts and then reform the structures. “That was the consensus!” This reform should not be allowed to fail, otherwise the coalition will fail, is his conclusion.
The question of the role and responsibility of the Chancellor
The emotionally colored left-wing counter-speech immediately comes from the television journalist Sophia Maier, who made a name for herself as a war reporter in Afghanistan and Ukraine. It is correct that the SPD said “Stop” to this reform: “This is not a reform about taking money away from people.” Like the SPD leadership, she advocates for privately insured people to participate in order to close the financial gap in statutory health insurance. BILD journalist and podcaster Paul Ronzheimer presents himself as a kind of political checker who finds out in real time from his informants from the Union and SPD what is going on behind the scenes in the coalition. “Everyone I have spoken to says that if it fails, the coalition fails,” he simply repeats Rach’s statement. In order to then reassuringly refer to the coalition leaders meeting parallel to the broadcast, who would basically agree because they knew the seriousness of the situation. The coalition dispute that has broken out again shows the SPD's "new power arithmetic" after Manuela Schwesig's success in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: "The SPD leadership is under pressure to change its policies."
And what would a post-election debate be without the inevitable question about the Chancellor's role and responsibility for all this mess? Maischberger dresses this up smugly in the form of a praise for his closest confidant and friend Roland Koch. “There is no better chancellor in this situation than Friedrich Merz,” the former Hesse Prime Minister recently said in Ronzheimer's podcast about the chancellor's record. An assessment that was not shared by many in surveys among the electorate and also in the CDU, with which Rach neither agreed nor disagreed when asked by Maischberger: “I don’t know.” To then sigh to the laughter of the studio audience: “Every horror report this week is AI, climate or Merz.”
For Sophia Maier, however, it is absolutely clear that Merz is contributing to these horror reports through his “neoliberal, cold politics”. He is a chancellor who “plays groups of people off against each other.” Their harsh verdict is that Merz is dividing and cannot unite the country; he must resign as chancellor.
“Disintegration” of the CDU and electoral success of the AfD
Ronzheimer points to the "disintegration" of the CDU that can be experienced "live" with a view to two current events: the beach chair that State Minister Philipp Amthor, who had recently been promoted to Merz's side, proudly had placed on his terrace in the Chancellery and picked up again on Monday after a shitstorm on social media, and the departure of Jens Spahn as a member of the budget committee after a trip to Sardinia with his husband and baby that was apparently not agreed upon with his party friends. A veteran CDU man said to him in desperation: “Where is my old CDU that didn’t make headlines every day?”
How to deal with the AfD after its electoral success in Saxony-Anhalt, on the other hand, is only discussed briefly but controversially, but does not bring any new insights. Rach thinks it's right that the CDU goes into opposition after its crushing election defeat and places the government's mandate with the election winner, the AfD. The journalist Maier sees it “completely differently” and, referring to Germany’s past, advocates for an all-party coalition in Magdeburg to keep the AfD out of power: “We Democrats have to prevent that.” Ronzheimer sees such references to 1933 as favoring the rise of the AfD. “These comparisons have put us in this situation.” You have to talk to the AfD and see whether they can even manage a government.
Duel between Baumann and Schulze
After this lively triumph, Maischberger leaves the ring open for a duel in which the parliamentary managing director of the AfD parliamentary group, Bernd Baumann, and the current Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt, Sven Schulze, give each other nothing. Schulze, whose sadness over the CDU's election debacle can be seen in his body language and facial expressions at the beginning, also sees the blame on himself. He was unable to transfer his personal popularity ratings to the CDU. In order to then take a stand for Merz, whom he hid during the election campaign: "What changes if you replace Merz? The problems remain."
Maischberger then gives the AfD man a template, which he enthusiastically received, by asking him for his opinion on the proposal by the historian Andreas Rödder, who is promoting a CDU minority government in the federal government, which would have to define “red lines” for cooperation with the AfD, such as non-negotiable membership in the EU and NATO. "This is the only strategy with which the CDU can survive. The CDU must decide whether it remains part of the problem or becomes part of the solution." The Union will have to cope with some losses if it moves towards the AfD, and this means that honorable CDU politicians like Herbert Reul will leave the party in this case. “Everything would be possible with us, when it comes to the issues of climate and migration,” he says, looking forward to such a model at the mercy of the AfD. For Schulze, this is a sham offer to the detriment of the CDU, and he reminds Baumann of his earlier statement that he only wanted to govern Saxony-Anhalt with an absolute majority and under no circumstances with Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW. "They are not a party with which you can govern. They want to destroy the CDU."
Question game about red lines
A question game about these red lines follows, in which both are only allowed to answer yes or no, which visibly causes Baumann to flounder, as many of his even more radical party friends like Björn Höcke are uncompromisingly on the no line in their answers. Does the EU bring more advantages than disadvantages? Baumann fusses around and forces himself to say no, because the internal market must ultimately be preserved. Baumann also cannot give a clear yes or no answer to the end of the euro brought into play by the AfD. “The euro is highly problematic,” he says in vain. On the other hand, a clear yes to NATO and a strong yes to the talks between Foreign Minister Wadephul and his Russian counterpart Lavrov, a no to further support for Ukraine. All questions to which Schulze unsurprisingly only says yes.
As a treat for all nostalgic fans of the not-so-long-gone good old days up to 2016, when Angela Merkel and a loyal SPD junior partner ensured stability, growth and mostly silent governance in a world without Trump, Brexit, Corona, the Ukraine war and the China shock, Maischberger welcomes Peer Steinbrück like a friend. The former finance minister and SPD candidate for chancellor can describe the really big problems and challenges of the “turning point” with sharp irony, a North German sound and the serenity of an elder statesman. And can he also refer to himself with quiet melancholy when he says with regard to Gerhard Schröder and Merkel: “In a democracy, all politicians ultimately fail.” And he inevitably quotes his role model Helmut Schmidt as a guideline for today's generation of politicians and their struggle for reforms, for example in pensions: "Politics must do what is necessary." That's not happening at the moment. "But we have to pass the acid test. This government must not fail!" He gives his SPD, which is no longer perceived as a party that implements reforms, a few pieces of advice that are unlikely to be followed there.
He advises against following Manuela Schwesig's reform-critical course and forming a coalition in Berlin with the Left and its economic “voodoo politics”. And just like the old man who can do better, he also gives SPD Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil a big one. He misses saving in his budget draft. At least ten percent of the expenses could be eliminated. A nice topic for the next coalition committee.
